The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sea change in the world. Such events in history only accelerate change already underway. Some of these changes we are still years away from (hence the conservative 7-year/end-of-decade predictions). I foresee the world shifting in many areas across how we socialize, engage in business, and are entertained—mental health—and as a result, well-known brands will win or lose.
A Shift in Social Interactions and Experiences
The pandemic created a new virtual world that will impact future couples. There will always be meetups and chance encounters, but modern dating will incorporate a virtual aspect. People will meet virtually before considering meeting in the real world. This virtual dimension will only become more mainstream as people engage in immersive worlds. There’ll even be virtual marriages between people that have never met in person.
However, physical encounters will never be entirely replaced. People will choose authentic over convenient experiences. I expect that escapism restaurants will become the trend of fulfilling people’s desire to travel or reconnect with youthful memories in the next year or two. A tightening economy will preclude extended vacation and travel industry-related issues.
As people seek ways to feed their experience and travel desires, the check-in culture will grow exponentially as proof that they have experienced it. These check-in functions will act as a way for people to create their “social score” in both the real and virtual worlds. It will serve as a counter-punch to all the fake social profilers and influencers today. Showing off wealth in the experience will reveal that a person is vacuous. Conversely, engaging and becoming a part of an experience will reveal the authenticity of character. Everything from gyms, restaurants, concerts, and, unfortunately, even disasters will all be things people will “check-in” to prove they were there. The check-in culture will also relate to work and education. Especially within the gig economy-proof of participation, quality of work, and the number of hours will create a “consultant score.”
How Proof of Experience Plays into Changes in Sports
This same proof-of-experience culture will permeate the sports world. Future sports and entertainment events will be fused with blockchain through fan engagement. Much like check-in functions in mobile applications, blockchain can act as digital proof that someone experienced something, whether in person or virtually.
As a result, all ticket sales will move to the blockchain. Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) will act as a key to access experiences and their badge of proof that they were there. The focus on, in a way, “owning” an experience could transform into a business model where image brokers partner with the sports leagues to offer images from an event to the highest bidder as an NFT. Owning the moment will move fans into a monetization model of ownership rights to a precious moment in time.
However, the monetization potential does not stop with the fans. Salaries for players will continue to grow and eclipse the top earners year-over-year. The largest accelerator in wealth will be players taking more direct control of their name, image, and likeness (NIL), personal brand, and fan engagement in real-life and virtual reality communities. I expect it will profoundly impact college players benefiting from their brands before they make it to a professional league.
At the brand level, things we’ve never thought we would say will transpire. As we’ve already seen with the recent scandal of Deshaun Watson, one or more NFL football teams will file for bankruptcy or become an asset sale because of growing scandals and litigation. At some point, a team will likely lose three to four marquee players to a scandal, disrupting the fan base, draft position, and overall ability to move merchandise. This will force ownership to negotiate a debt settlement, cut losses, and have a fire sale.
Inversely, outside factors rather than internally derived ones will also impact the brands of the sporting world. As nations push for decarbonization, motorsports will face a transformation decision to survive. Formula 1, owned by the Liberty Media Group, will continue to grow F1 racing popularity but will eventually drive itself into a corner.
When they must come face-to-face with the environmental impact of racing, they’ll look to acquire Formula E. With all major car manufacturers producing electric vehicles and even Honda, Formula 1 engine producer for Redbull, stepping away with the most successful turbo hybrid engine in the 2022 race year, sponsorship dollars will move away from Formula 1 for racing sports aligned to their investments like Formula E or Extreme E. But the changes in the business world will not be exclusively confined to the sports industry.
How the Economic Landscape Will Shift
Geographical-based decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) will displace the sharing economy leaders like Uber and DoorDash, among others. As restaurants try to control their profit margins by delivering food via gig delivery drivers, DAOs will create local collective services within micro-economies to support their businesses. Large corporations will fund these DAOs as last-yard delivery and service solutions. Still, they’ll also partner with small local businesses for iterative services, support, or even white-label local goods.
For the retail industry, direct-to-consumer will continue its disruption. Large retail conglomerates will suffer, and middle-level retailers will close their doors for good. High-end retailers will continue to survive despite a soft economy but not in the traditional ways we know today. Plus, by adding virtual components like NFTs, clothing purchases will be for the physical world and virtual worlds, which will help profit margins and their ability to go direct to consumers.
While the post-pandemic world has raised serious questions about mental health, these changes will only fuel the fire. Mental health will become as lucrative as the weight loss industry. While there will be an earnest effort to normalize mental health discussions and care, the world will turn to quick fixes and charlatans who will take a front-and-center role in pitching “get-right” pills, books, and inanimate objects that can heal mental health issues. Amazon and other influencer/lifestyle retailers will begin offering monthly subscriptions for mental health including books, pills, candles, and virtual visits.
For the average consumer, virtual real estate will be a bust, and the world of NFT art will not rebound. People will focus on buying experiences and unique identifiers for both the real world and the digital realm. Large corporations who want to compete and create virtual experiences could see value in securing marquee assets that are 100% digital, but it’s a very long shot. After all, the value of a beachfront home is the limited amount of beachfront property. There are no limitations within a virtual landscape.
Alignment for Decentralized Currency
Bitcoin will still be a volatile investment tied to factors like the US bear market or geopolitical disruptions. Still, it will continue to grow with speculative investors and daily commerce around the globe. The growing decentralization movement by the US conservative party will accelerate the adoption and investment in bitcoin.
Assuming we have a conservative as the next US President, expect continued problems within the EU and Euro debt ratios. Emerging markets will increase their positions in blockchain commerce, and the two-year delay from the US Fed to respond to known market trends will push tons of new money into bitcoin assets and commerce.
It’s hard to say if or when the US Government will change the taxation of bitcoin (currently an asset tax that creates problems with using it for daily commerce transactions). But with the growing popularity of US dollar stablecoin initiatives and highly capitalized crypto lending like SALT, BlockFI, and—now as of late April—Goldman Sachs, the advantage on a global scale goes to bitcoin long-term. Suppose a major US financial institution were to acquire a leading bitcoin bank like Silvergate. In that case, we could see that as a tipping point indicator for the global economy to recognize bitcoin as a stable currency within the next 3-5 years.
NFTs will transition to an access key, proof of purchase, or experience away from a rights-managed image as it is largely known today. In the next three years, we will see NFTs attached to real-world purchases go from a novelty to an expectation in everything from fashion to geofenced experiences. Much like your wallet, pictures, and social media on your phone, you will soon have an NFT library of your purchases, experiences, and communities, both in-person and virtual, on your phone.
Final Thoughts on the Impact of These Predictions
The seeds of many of these outcomes have already been planted. Whether they come to fruition or not, only time will tell. But that doesn’t mean we should not keep a close eye on how these various things develop in the next decade. Regardless of how they shake out, one thing is certain: our personal and work life will undoubtedly become even more cross-connected with the physical and virtual worlds, for better and worse.
