They call him a clown, showman, political neophyte and give many other names.
Believe it or not, most of them are true. Just like the current occupant of the White House in Washington D.C., Mr. Zelenski has completely upended the political establishment in Ukraine. In the first round of elections, Zelenski has received 30.24% of the citizens’ vote versus 15.95% for the incumbent president Mr. Poroshenko.
On paper, these results present a highly impressive feat, but, if you consider the fact that there were a total of 39 presidential candidates in the first round, the outcome borders the unreal. Never in Ukraine’s history has there been such a drastic vote gap between the current president and the challenger, forcing a second round of voting. The winner of the election will be determined by the citizens of Ukraine and announced on April 21st, 2019. In all of this madness, the message of the voters remains clear: “We are sick and tired of the same corrupted politicians running our country”.
Unlike US or EU elections of the previous couple of years, Zelenski can be hardly accused of populism. His success is strongly rooted in economy and unfairness of the system toward the majority of the population in the democratic society of Ukraine. After breaking up of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was positioned and expected, by world renown experts, to become one of the most prosperous countries in Europe. People are simply tired of 28 years of mismanagement, greed, and nepotism at every level of governance. They no longer trust the same faces that were in charge of the country for the last two decades.
Questions regarding Ukraine’s current state continue to circulate and cause concern around the world.
How did this happen? What made people turn away from their president? The man who has built an army from the ground up to stand against Russian aggression; the man who has got the EU to grant Ukrainians access to European countries without a visa. A man who played a critical role in the establishment of the independent church of Ukraine. After seeing a decline of trust in their leader, what is the next step for Ukrainian citizens?
And why should the leaders in US, EU, China, Russia and the rest of the world care? What is to expect if Zelenski wins? Let’s break this down.
The Ze-team, as it is commonly referred to in the public, has done an absolutely marvellous job. Although I am a very apolitical person, I have still been closely monitoring the political campaigns seen around the world for the past 25 years. In my humble opinion, I believe that the Ze-team campaign will go down in political history as one of the best campaigns ever.
Mr. Zelenski is the founder of the most successful entertainment company amongst countries in Eastern Europe and former Soviet Republics. His corporate child, studio Kvartal 95, is adored by the public (in full disclosure – I am a huge fan of him and actually attended his live concert in Boston, MA). The shows and sitcoms Kvartal puts on are patriotic, highly critical of the corrupted political establishment, and hysterically funny. Prior to entering the presidential race, Zelenski had a country-wide name recognition and for the most part has held zero negative ratings, unlike many other major candidates. Maybe, because he has never held any government office. He is a political infant and unknown to the world to this day, less than two weeks before the big start.
The Ze-team’s presidential campaign strategy led to highly innovative election tactics. Zelenski started to tease the public in the spring of 2018 regarding the possibility of his candidacy. This led him to being included in the top list of possible presidential candidates during the frequent polling updates of the common public as seen in any presidential race. Results of the polls landed him a spot in the top 5 candidates, signalling his great potential. The Ze-team made several critical strategic decisions that led to their major victory in the first round.
The steps were as follows: engage voters on an emotional level, focus on the generation under 45 years who have never experienced the Soviet Union regime and are connected to the current world, promote simple and positive messages to unite the country, and last but not least – use social media platforms to promote the campaign. The results? Young people with energy, patriotism, and desire for a better life, who have never been a political factor in the past, have come out in droves to vote.
In business and politics, a strategy is nothing without execution. Late into the fall of 2018, citizens around Ukraine began to see re-runs of highly popular Ukrainian movie “Servant of the People”. As the lead actor, Zelenski plays the role of a school teacher who is angry with the government, and by fortuitous circumstances is elected as the president. His announcement of a presidential run was a stroke of brilliance. Zelenski announced run for president during his New Year’s concert that was being viewed by most of the country.
More importantly, Zelenski announced his run at the exact same time the current president Poroshenko was officially announcing his run for the second term on his own channel. The presidential camp was furious! The challenger was changing the rules of the game. Immediately thereafter, the Ze-team started a social media campaign to gain people’s feedback on what changes they hope to see.
Responding to negative attacks “No Clown President”, Zelenki’s team started the “I am the clown” campaign, where many citizens created and posted videos calling themselves clowns because they are students without a future, teachers with an income of $80 per month, senior citizens without an ability to have enough money for food or electricity, single mothers who can’t find affordable childcare, and many other similar messages that apply to millions.
When the attacks became focused towards presidential challenger business affairs, he started the process of selling all of his assets. Furthermore, the candidate submitted records of his existing assets and income sources in a fully transparent way to the public. All of this, not to mention, before the first round of elections.
After the embarrassing loss to the ‘political neophyte’, President Poroshenko challenged Zelenski to a televised debate. From a practical point of view, Zelenski should not have even considered it, but, the Ze-camp response stunned the public and president Poroshenko. In a public YouTube video, Zelenski accepted the presidential challenge with his own conditions.
He challenged the president to hold this debate not in a studio which is controlled by one oligarch or the other, but rather in the National Sports Complex Olimpiyskiy located in the centre of Ukraine’s capital with a capacity of 70,000 people. By making such requests, Zelenski turned the tables and tested the power of the presidential administration and its administrative resource. He gave Poroshenko 24 hours to respond.
He demanded alcohol and drug testing. He demanded that any media sources and outlets will be allowed to participate. All in all, he strategically put the president of Ukraine in a very difficult position. To everyone’s surprise, Poroshenko accepted the challenge. Regardless of how you slice it, the President of Ukraine is on the defensive and has very limited options. Remember 85% of citizens did not vote for the president. What if 85% of 70,000 people attending the debate will loudly and publicly express their outrage live on TV watched by the country and the world. The Ze-team is now in the driver seat of this presidential race.
Personal economics is the reason the public across generations, geography and socioeconomic groups have turned away from the current leadership of the country. Here are the simple facts:
• The average income per capita per month around the country is roughly $300 today.
• The local currency stands at 27 hryvnias to $1 versus 8 hryvnias to $1 in 2008.
• The minimum pension is $51 per month in 2019 versus roughly $200 in 2008.
• Disabled citizens are getting $75 per month versus roughly $300 in 2008
In retrospect, it’s hard to hide the fact that people are becoming more and more poor. The middle class is trying to stay above the poverty line, senior citizens are struggling to survive, talented young people are fleeing the country seeking better opportunities elsewhere, and small businesses have to consistently deal with the ever-shrinking domestic markets, harassment by authorities, high taxes and no access to international markets.
All of this happening while president Poroshenko has experienced a double-digit increase in his net worth (based on the ‘official’ numbers released by Poroshenko himself) in every year of his presidency! Can you blame the public for turning away?
For all other major global powers, Zelenski candidacy factor must be a major signal – Ukraine will reverse its course! An economically strong Ukraine will change the game on geopolitical, economic and labour migration levels.
Investors all over the world are seeking stability and visibility for long-term profitable growth. Capital is fluid and plentiful. Ukraine’s ROI potential is well known to the public. During the last five years, the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been practically non-existent for 40 million of Ukrainian citizens. In 2018 remittance sent to Ukraine from migrated labour has exceeded the FDI almost by four times.
Nevertheless, Ukraine is on global investors radar now, most of whom are sitting on the “fence” now. In my conversations with investors and top executives around the world, I can sense the anticipation. The number of unsolicited inquiries has quadrupled after the new year. As always, I end every conversation with a simple message: “Don’t miss out a seat on this train, because it is already underway.”
My personal expectations for future President Zelenski are that he will continue the path of disruption. I approve of his proposal for economic amnesty (I have personally been promoting for it for the last five years) which would bring 40%+ of Ukraine’s shadow economy into the real economy with the infusion of an estimated $100+ billion of dormant liquid assets held by Ukrainian citizens.
I also fully support his team in rebuilding Ukraine’s judicial system from scratch. Most importantly, I completely behind the Ze-team in the creation of a Digital Democracy which would hold transparency, prosperity and social responsibility as key values.
Both demographic and technological trends are irreversible in Ukraine. Zelenski and his team have energized the country with its positive message raging against the fear mongering by current president Poroshenko.
In the near future, the Ze-team has three things to focus on: first, win the election held on April 21st; second, surround Ukraine’s new president with highly qualified and reputable professionals in every sector; third, execute in the name of Ukrainian people!
